CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index

May 2023 Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: APRIL 2023 DATA

CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past two years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.

As of May 1st, 2023, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found used car prices saw their second biggest month-over-month increase in well over a year, both in absolute dollars, and relative to normal market conditions.

• Used cars were listed at an average price of $31,951 in May, up $439 (or 1%) since April.

  • In total, used car prices have increased by $1,125 (or nearly 5%) since in the past two months alone - reversing course from their declines in late 2022 as consumer demand, particularly among more affluent consumers, remains strong and sales levels stay high despite price increases.

• On average, used cars have a Price Premium of $8,157 (or 34.3%) above projected normal levels.

  • This amounts to a $160 (or 2%) increase in Premium from April, when the Premium was $7,997 (or 34.0%).

• Used SUVs, long the segment closest to returning to normal levels, saw a staggering $1,028 increase in price since April, and are up 8% (or about $3,100) in the past eight weeks alone.  

  • They’re now priced $9,042, or 26% above normal levels, representing an 8% month-over-month increase in Premium.
  • Used SUV sales have also surged this year, and their corresponding price increases are one of the primary drivers of increasing prices in the used car market.

• Used Teslas are the brand closest to returning to normal levels, with a Price Premium of $2,118 (or 5%) above projected normal levels. Since July 2022, their Premium has fallen by a massive 91% – and has dropped by 48% (or $1,936) in the past month alone.

  • Used Tesla prices were almost flat month-over-month, lagging the overall market, likely due to downward price pressure from discounts and tax credits offered on new cars.

• Luxury brands are priced the highest above normal levels, with an average Price Premium of $9,712 (or 31%) above projected normal.

PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE

• In May, nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) were listed at an average price of $41,282 – an increase of more than $1,009 since January and marking the fourth consecutive monthly price increase.

  • The Premium for this age bracket was $11,054 (or 37%) above projected normal levels – an decrease of $93 (or 0.8%) since the previous month.
  • Driven by continued strong demand and sales, 1-3 year old used vehicles hit yet another record average price of $50,916, up 1.2% since April and up 7% year-over-year.

• In May, preowned (4-7 year old cars) had an average listing price of $29,011, amounting to a very slight increase of $29 (or 0.1%) from the previous month, but a decrease of $359 (or 1.2%) since January.

  • The Price Premium for pre-owned cars was $7,528 (or 35%) above projected normal levels. This represents an 3% increase in Premium since April, when this age bracket was priced $7,304 (or 34%) above projected normal levels.

• In May, older (8-13 year old) used cars had an average listing price of $17,445, down by just $110 since the previous month.

  • The Price Premium for 8-13 year old cars in May was $4,691 (or 37%) above projected normal levels. This represents a slight decrease of $46 from April, when the Premium for these vehicles was $4,737 (or 37%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY TYPE OF VEHICLE

• SUVs: In May 2023, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $43,428, representing a month-over-month increase of 2% (or $1,028).

  • April marks the second straight month of price increases for used SUVs, which are up by 8% (or $3,100) in the past eight weeks alone.
  • At $9,042, the Price Premium for used SUVs is now 26% above projected normal levels. This represents an 8% increase in Price Premium from February, when used SUVs were priced $8,374 (or 25%) above projected normal levels.
  • This represents a $3,113 (or 53%) jump in Premium since January, when Premium prices were $5,929 (17%) above normal levels.
  • Within the SUV segment, the largest, most expensive models have increased the most in price. For instance, full-size luxury SUVs have jumped in price by 8% (or about $5,000) in the past eight weeks, while other full-size SUVs are up 10% (or about $4,000) in that same time period.
  • Despite these increases, used SUVs still remain the segment closest to returning to normal levels, and its Premium is still down $1,437 year-over-year.

• Minivans: In May 2023, minivans increased in price for the second month in a row, now listed at an average price of $24,543. This represents a price increase of $658 (or 3%) since April.

  • The Price Premium for used minivans was $6,854 (or 39%) above projected normal levels. This represents a 4% (or $263) in Premium since April, when the Premium for used minivans was $6,591 (or 38%) above normal levels.
  • This also marks the first increase in Premium for used minivans since November 2022.

• Pickup Trucks: In May 2023, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $41,279, up 2% (or $618) since April. This marks the third consecutive month in which used pickup truck prices increased.

  • In May 2023, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $9,659, or 31%, above projected normal levels – a 5% (or $440) increase since April.
  • Despite this increase, used pickup trucks remain the segment second-closest to returning to normal levels, on a percentage basis.

PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE

• In May 2023, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $46,060 – a decline of 3% (or $1,155) from the previous month. Used electric vehicles have steadily declined in price since July 2022, when gas prices first started to fall.

• Used Teslas prices are now listed at an average of $48,742, down $514 since April, and by a total of $2,734 (or 5%) since Tesla first announced price cuts to new models

  • Used Teslas have the lowest Premium among mainstream brands – currently priced a relatively modest $2,118 (or 4.5%) above projected normal. In the past month alone, the Price Premium for used Teslas has fallen by a staggering 48% (or $1,936).
  • Since the Premium for used Teslas peaked in July 2022 at a gas-price-driven $24,032 (or 53%) above projected normal levels, it has declined by a staggering 91% in the past nine months.

In May 2023, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $43,186, an increase of 2% (or $723) since April. Following months of steady price declines since gas prices peaked in summer 2022, this represents the third month in which used hybrid prices have increased.

PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND

Domestic Brands:

• In May 2023, high-volume domestic brands had an average Price Premium of $8,595 (or 36%), above projected normal levels.

  • The Premium for domestic brands jumped from April, up by 4% (or $336).

• In May, used Ford had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $6,528, or 25%, above projected normal levels. They were followed by used GMC, which had a Price Premium of $6,395 or 20%, above projected normal levels.

Foreign Brands:

• In May 2023, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $6,792 (or 38%), above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a 7% (or $442) increase in Premium since April, and marks the second consecutive monthly increase in Premium for foreign brands. 
  • In May, among foreign brands, used Toyotas commanded the highest Price Premium, listed at $6,179, or 27%, above projected normal levels. They were followed by used Kias, which had a Price Premium of $5,431, or 32%, above projected normal levels, and used Volkswagens, whose May Premium was $5,251, or 29%, above normal.

Luxury Brands:

• In May 2023, the Price Premium for luxury used car brands averaged $9,712 (or 31%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a 4% (or $328) increase in Premium since April, and marks the third consecutive monthly increase for luxury brands.
  • Used Genesis had the highest absolute Price Premium among luxury brands, listed at $10,623, or 30%, above projected normal levels.
  • They were followed by used Cadillac and Mercedes-Benz, which had Price Premiums of $8,707 (or 29%) and $7,584 (or 20%), respectively.

METHODOLOGY

The Return to Normal Index is drawn from data collected by leading car shopping app CoPilot. CoPilot’s data and proprietary methodology track the online inventory of virtually every dealer in the country, every day, offering real-time analysis of car prices, inventory, and sales. This May 2023 report covers data through April 30, 2023. Data and methodology have been refined in this report, for increased sensitivity to market fluctuations. Data may adjust in future, due to changes in methodology and as additional data sources are integrated.

CoPilot provides free pricing tools for consumers and the media. Price Pulse makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, track price changes, and compare years and models to choose the right car and know when to buy. For car owners and sellers, Price Pulse calculates the real-time value of their car, using the same data only dealers used to have, allowing consumers to track how much their vehicle has appreciated, so they can decide whether and when to sell, or negotiate the best deal at trade-in or lease-end.

For media publishers, CoPilot’s Price Pulse market trends offers free, embeddable data tools, allowing journalists and bloggers to integrate interactive charts and tables within their web content, apps, or newsletters, powered by CoPilot’s unique data and analytics.

Media Contact:

Kerry Close

kclose@groupgordon.com

732-609-2644

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