CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index

September 2023 Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: AUGUST 2023 DATA

CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past three years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.

As of September 1, 2023, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found:

• Used cars overall had an average listing price of $31,420 in August 2023, down by just $81 since July.

  • This month marks the third consecutive month of used car price declines, down $595 (or 2%) from their 2023 peak in May. However, used car prices are actually $612 above the levels at which they started the year (with an average listing price of $30,808).

• Used cars have a Price Premium of $6,695 (or 27%) above normal levels, down $495 (or 7%) from the previous month. 

  • While their Premium has fallen for the past three months, it is still $349 (or 5%) higher than the level at which it started the year – at $6,346 (or 26%) above projected normal levels.

• While all age brackets continued to fall from their peak levels for the year, older used cars have seen the most substantial price drops.

  • 4-7 year old prices have fallen by $1,753 (or 6%) since January, and 8-13 year old car prices by $1,004 (or 6%), while 1-3 year old cars have dropped by just $341 since the start of the year.
  • As a result – and because these cars have the lowest average prices in absolute terms – consumers who need to buy a car in the short term are increasingly gravitating toward older models.

• Used SUVs and truck prices continue to fall, though they have not fully recovered the pricing gains they saw from their run-up in the spring.

  • Still, they remain the two segments closest to normal pricing levels – priced 19% and 22% above normal, respectively – and their Premiums have both fallen substantially since prices peaked for the year in May.

• Used Teslas are the only brand currently priced below normal levels, with their Premium $245 (or 0.6%) below normal levels, as the impact of pricing cuts continues to ripple through the used market for this brand.

• The average Premium for used domestic brands dropped substantially in August, down by over $1,000 (or 13%).

  • However, as the potential pending UAW strike creates questions about the viability of new supply of the Big Three brands, it remains to be seen if domestic brands will continue to see pricing drops in subsequent months. 
  • Now may be the time for consumers to consider buying a new or used Ford, Stellantis, or GM car if they are interested in one of these brands.
  • Separately, used foreign brands saw their Premium increase in August, up by $177 (or 3%) month-over-month.

PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE

• In August, nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) were listed at an average price of $39,331, falling by $360 (or nearly 1%) from the previous month. 

  • The price declines in this age bracket slowed this month: Between June and July, 1-3 year old car prices fell by $634 (or 2%).

  • Since peaking for the year in April, they have fallen by a cumulative $1,982 (or 5%) as replenishing new car inventory eases demand for more expensive used cars.

  • However, they are currently priced only $341 below their January 2023 levels, indicating they have yet to fully recover from the price run-up they saw in the spring.

  • The Premium for this age bracket was $8,619 (or 28%) above projected normal levels – a decrease of $302 (or 3%) from the previous month.

  • August also marks the fifth consecutive month in which the Premium for nearly-new cars has declined.

• In August, preowned (4-7 year old cars) had an average listing price of $27,619, falling by $6,489 (or 31%) since July.

  • Since peaking for the year at $28,993 in April, preowned prices have fallen by a total of $1,374 (or 5%).
  • In August, the Price Premium for pre-owned cars was $6,489 (or 31%) above projected normal levels. This represents a $154 (or 2%) decrease in Premium since July, when this age bracket was priced $6,643 (or 31%) above projected normal levels.

• In August, older (8-13 year old) used cars had an average listing price of $17,109, a $71 (or 0.4%) decrease from July.

  • Since their peak at the start of the year (at an average listing price of $18,113), older used car prices have fallen by a total of $1,004 (or 6%).
  • Demand for older used cars has increased substantially this month, as consumers in a pinch have gravitated toward them as the most affordable option in absolute terms. As a result, days supply for older used cars has fallen to just 28 days.
  • The Price Premium for older used cars in August was $4,316 (or 34%) above projected normal levels, down by $24 (or 0.6%) from July.

PRICE PREMIUM BY TYPE OF VEHICLE

• SUVs: In August 2023, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $42,534, falling by $363 (or 0.8%) since July. This marks the fourth consecutive month of price decreases for used SUVs.

  • Since reaching their 2023 peak in May, at $43,499, prices have fallen by $965 (or 2%). This, however, represents a small drop in comparison to the $3,136 (or 8%) in price gains they saw between January and May.

  • In August, Price Premium for used SUVs fell to $6,640 (or 19%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $671 (or 7%) decline in Premium since July, when used SUVs were priced $7,111 (or 20%) above projected normal levels.

  • Used SUVs remain the segment closest to returning to normal levels. Since used SUV prices peaked for the year in May, their Premium has fallen by a total of $1,220 (or 16%). 

• Pickup Trucks: In August 2023, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $40,142, down by $463 (or 1%) since July.

  • This marks the third consecutive month in which used pickup prices declined, though they have yet to fully recover from the price-run they saw in the spring.

  • Used pickup truck prices are still $314 above the pricing levels at which they started the year (when their average listing price was $39,829).

  • In August 2023, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $7,207 (or 22%) above projected normal levels – a $493 (or 6%) decrease since July.

  • After SUVs, pickup trucks remain the used segment second-closest to returning to normal levels, on a percentage basis. 

  • Their Premium has fallen by $1,342 (or 16%) since reaching its peak for the year in May.

• Minivans: In August 2023, minivans were listed at an average price of $24,858, representing a $246 (or 1%) increase from the previous month, and reversing the previous month’s price drop for this segment.

  • Since the beginning of the year, used minivan prices have increased by $742 (or 3%).

  • The Price Premium for used minivans is now $6,863 (or 38%) above projected normal levels.

  • This Premium has increased by $1,204 (or 21%) since its January levels of $5,659 (or 32%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE

• In August 2023, used Tesla prices had an average listing price of $42,554, down by $950 (or 2%) since July and in the wake of Tesla’s latest announcement of price cuts to new models.

  • Since Tesla first announced price cuts in late December 2022, average prices of its used models have fallen by a total of $10,572 (or 20%).

  • In the past year, they have fallen by $23,845 (or 36%). 

  • Used Teslas are the only brand priced currently priced below normal levels, listed $245 (or 0.6%) below projected normal, and making them the best value on the market

  • Over the past year, their Premium has also fallen by $18,361.

• In August, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $42,351, representing a decline of $464 (or 1%) since July.

  • Used electric vehicle prices have felt the ripple effects of price cuts to new Tesla models. Since December 2022, they have fallen by $8,602 (or 17%).
  • Over the past year, they have also fallen substantially in price after gas prices reached record highs. Since August 2022, they have fallen by $20,906 (or 33%).
  • At 81 days market supply, new electric vehicle inventory also hovers way above average for new vehicles as dealers struggle to sell these vehicles in the face of waning consumer demand. This inventory glut could see continued impacts on the used EV market.

• In August, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $42,612, representing a decrease of $210 (or 0.5%) since July. Since August 2022, hybrids have fallen in price by a total of $4,553 (or 10%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND

Domestic Brands:

• In August, high-volume domestic brands had an average Price Premium of $6,882 (or 27%), above projected normal levels.

  • The Premium for domestic brands decreased substantially in August, down by $1,034 (or 13%) since the previous month.

• In August, used Chevrolets had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $7,981 (or 34%) above projected normal levels. They were followed by used GMCs and used Rams, which had Price Premiums of $7,747 (or 25%) and $7,571 (or 23%), respectively, above projected normal levels.

Foreign Brands:

• In August, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $6,309 (or 35%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $177 (or 3%) increase in Premium since July.
  • In August, among foreign brands, used Volkswagens had the highest Price Premium, listed at $7,703 (or 48%) above projected normal levels.
  • They were followed by used Toyotas and used Kias, whose August Premiums were $7,092 (or 32%) and $6,397 (or 40%), respectively.

Luxury Brands:

• In August, the Price Premium for luxury used car brands was $7,345 (or 23%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $260 (or 3%) decrease in Premium from last month.
  • Used Porsche vehicles had the highest Price Premium among luxury brands, priced $14,294 (or 23%) above projected normal levels. 
  • They were followed by used Cadillacs and used Mercedes-Benz, which had Price Premiums of $9,385 (or 33%) and $8,084 (or 22%), respectively.

METHODOLOGY

CoPilot is the leading AI-assisted car shopping app app that provides consumers with an expert partner for high-consideration purchases, starting with car buying and ownership. The platform combines massive real-time data with a winning combination of human expertise and AI-powered search to introduce transparency to the shopping, purchasing and ownership journey. The mobile application takes the time, frustration, and guesswork out of the process, empowering people to easily navigate the risks of shopping for high-value items, and to buy with confidence at the right price and the right time.

CoPilot provides free AI-powered search and pricing tools for consumers. CoPilot’s 

AI-powered Model Discovery Tool provides car comparisons and model recommendations, serving as an intelligent agent to make AI actionable for car shoppers. The tool applies CoPilot’s proprietary analytics to the company’s  comprehensive listings database, in order to save time, money, and frustration for car shoppers. The user-friendly chat interface delivers AI-powered analysis to recommend and rank the best cars that meet each shopper’s specific needs within their chosen geographic area. Additionally, CoPilot’s ChatGPT plugin is the first to rank and return real-time listings within ChatGPT’s chat interface. 

CoPilot’s pricing tool, Price Pulse, makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, helping them to know what and when to buy, sell or trade-in, using the same data only dealers used to have.

View the press release on this month’s Index report findings here.

Media Contact:

Kerry Close

kclose@groupgordon.com

732-609-2644