CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SEPTEMBER 2023 DATA

CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past three years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.

As of October 1, 2023, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found:

• Used cars have an average listing price of $31,163, down just $150 from the previous month.

  • Used cars overall still remain $360 higher than the price levels at which they started the year.

• The Price Premium for used cars is $6,253 (or 25%) above projected normal levels. This represents a $333 (or 5%) decrease in Premium from the previous month, when used cars were priced $6,586 (or 27%) above projected normal levels.

  • However, the Price Premium for used cars has fallen slightly since the start of the year, from $6,340 (or 26%) above normal in January.

• Each vehicle age bracket continues to see steady price declines, though older cars are falling in price at a somewhat greater clip. All age brackets have seen their Price Premium fall for at least the past five months.

• Used SUVs and pickup trucks remain the two segments closest to returning to normal levels.

  • For the past four consecutive months, used SUVs, pickup trucks, and minivans have all fallen in price, but price declines slowed this month.
  • Of the three, only used pickup trucks have fallen below their January levels, but only by $131.

• Used Tesla prices remain below projected normal levels for the third consecutive month, currently priced $526 (or 1%) below normal.

  • However, used EVs overall actually increased in price this month, up by $524 (or 1%). This represents the first monthly price increase since July 2022.

• On a percentage basis, luxury brands are the closest to returning to normal levels, currently priced 23% above projected normal levels, though they were the only brand to see a monthly increase in September (by 2%).

  • Meanwhile, Price Premiums for domestic brands fell by 5% in September. Affordability for domestic brands will remain in question as the UAW strikes start to impact new car inventory and eventually potentially trickle into the used car market.

PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE

• In September, nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) were listed at an average price of $38,905, falling by $333 (or 0.8%) since August.

  • Since peaking for the year in April, they have fallen by $2,417 (or 6%).
  • However, their month-over-month declines are steadily lessening: In August, they fell by $456, while in July, they fell by $632.
  • However, since the start of the year, nearly-new prices have only fallen by a cumulative $1,375 (3%), due to this spring’s run-up in prices.

  • The Premium for this age bracket was $8,125 (or 26%) above projected normal levels – a decrease of $400 (or 5%) from the previous month.

  • September also marks the sixth consecutive month in which the Premium for nearly-new cars has declined – indicating this most expensive vehicle age bracket is gradually becoming more affordable to consumers in real terms.

• In September, preowned (4-7 year old cars) had an average listing price of $27,127, falling by $391 (or 1%) since August.

  • Since peaking for the year at $28,974 in March, preowned prices have fallen by a total of $1,847 (or 6%).
  • In September, the Price Premium for pre-owned cars was $5,991 (or 28%) above projected normal levels.
  • This represents a $393 (or 6%) decrease in Premium since August, when this age bracket was priced $6,384 (or 30%) above projected normal levels.
  • The Price Premium for preowned vehicles has fallen for the past five consecutive months, by a total of $1,200 (or 17%).

• In September, older (8-13 year old) used cars had an average listing price of $16,921, a $199 (or 1%) decrease from August.

  • Since their peak at the start of the year (at an average listing price of $18,132), older used car prices have fallen by a cumulative $1,211 (or 7%).
  • Older used car sales fell by about 4% in September, after increasing last month, as consumers increasingly feel the impacts of high interest rates and no longer have the cushion of pandemic-era savings to rely upon.
  • The Price Premium for older used cars in September was $4,223 (or 33%) above projected normal levels, down by $99 (or 2%) since August, and an acceleration from the previous month-over-month decline of $44.
  • The Price Premium for older vehicles has fallen for the past six consecutive months, down by a total of $492 (or 10%) since March.

PRICE PREMIUM BY SEGMENT

• SUVs: In September 2023, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $41,968, falling by $287 (or 0.7%) since August.

  • This marks the fourth consecutive month of price decreases for used SUVs, and prices have fallen by a cumulative $1,520 (or 3%) in that time. This month, however, saw a smaller month-over-month drop compared to July and August.
  • However, prices have yet to fully recover from the gains they experienced in the spring, in which they jumped by $3,278 (or 8%).

  • In September, Price Premium for used SUVs fell to $5,830 (or 16%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $548 (or 9%) decline in Premium since August, when used SUVs were priced $6,378 (or 18%) above projected normal levels.

  • Used SUVs remain the segment closest to returning to normal levels. Since used SUV prices peaked for the year in April, their Premium has fallen by a total of $2,129 (or 27%). 

• Pickup Trucks: In September 2023, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $39,691, down by $296 (or 0.7%) since July.

  • While this marks the fourth consecutive month in which used pickup prices declined, prices are still $131 above the pricing levels at which they started the year (when their average listing price was $39,822).

  • Similar to used SUVs, month-over-month price declines for used trucks were slower in September than in the previous two months.

  • In September 2023, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $6,729 (or 20%) above projected normal levels – a $323 (or 5%) decrease since August.

  • After SUVs, pickup trucks remain the used segment second-closest to returning to normal levels, on a percentage basis. 

  • Their Premium has fallen by $1,803 (or 21%) since reaching their peak for the year in May.

• Minivans: In September 2023, minivans were listed at an average price of $24,776, representing a $111 (or 0.4%) decrease from the previous month.

  • Since the beginning of the year, used minivan prices have increased by $663 (or 3%).

  • The Price Premium for used minivans is now $6,649 (or 37%) above projected normal levels.

  • This Premium has increased by $531 (or 9%) since its January levels of $6,118 (or 34%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE

• In September 2023, used Tesla prices had an average listing price of $41,769, down by $346 (or 1%) since August.

  • Since Tesla first announced price cuts in late December 2022, average prices of its used models have fallen by a total of $11,533 (or 22%). In the past year, they have fallen by $21,534 (or 34%). 

  • Used Teslas are the only brand currently priced below normal levels, listed $526 (or 1%) below projected normal.

  • This represents a slight increase from August’s Premium of $717 below normal levels, but marks the third consecutive month in which Premiums have been below normal levels.

  • Over the past year, the Premium for used Teslas has also fallen by $16,436.

• In September, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $42,804, up by $524 (or 1%).

  • This represents the first monthly increase in price for the first time in over a year, as used EV sales have increased by 25%, and market days supply has fallen by 22%, since July.
  • Over the past year, however, used EV prices have also fallen significantly after gas prices peaked at record highs. Since September 2022, they have fallen by $20,458 (or 32%).

  • At 82 market days supply, new EV inventory remains considerably elevated above the levels for gas-powered vehicles (at 54 market days supply), as consumer interest in EV stagnates despite price drops and government incentives and tax rebates. 

  • In the past month, new EV prices – now at an average of $66,076 – have increased by $112.

  • New EV prices peaked in March 2023, at $68,751, and have fallen by $2,675 (or 4%) since.

• In September, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $42,725, marking an increase of $147 since August.

  • Since September 2022, hybrids have fallen in price by a total of $4,435 (or 9%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND

Domestic Brands:

• In September, high-volume domestic brands had an average Price Premium of $6,448 (or 25%), above projected normal levels.

  • The Premium for domestic brands decreased in September, down by $312 (or 5%) since the previous month.

• In September, used GMCs had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $7,511 (or 24%) above projected normal levels.

• They were followed by used Chevrolets and used Fords, which had Price Premiums of $7,346 (or 31%) and $7,159 (or 29%), respectively, above projected normal levels.

Foreign Brands:

• In September, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $5,991 (or 33%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $298 (or 5%) decrease in Premium since the previous month.
  • In September, among foreign brands, used Volkswagens had the highest Price Premium, listed at $7,413 (or 46%)  above projected normal levels.
  • They were followed by used Toyotas and used Kias, whose Premiums this month were $6,872 (or 31%) and $6,051 (or 37%), respectively.

Luxury Brands:

• In September, the Price Premium for luxury used car brands was $7,318 (or 23%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $137 (or 2%) increase in Premium from August.
  • Used Porsche vehicles had the highest Price Premium among luxury brands, priced $13,934 (or 22%) above projected normal levels. 
  • They were followed by used Cadillacs and used Mercedes-Benz, which had Price Premiums of $8,894 (or 30%) and $7,621 (or 21%), respectively.

METHODOLOGY

CoPilot is the leading AI-assisted car shopping app that provides consumers with an expert partner for high-consideration purchases, starting with car buying and ownership. The platform combines massive real-time data with a winning combination of human expertise and AI-powered search to introduce transparency to the shopping, purchasing and ownership journey. The mobile application takes the time, frustration, and guesswork out of the process, empowering people to easily navigate the risks of shopping for high-value items, and to buy with confidence at the right price and the right time.

CoPilot provides free AI-powered search and pricing tools for consumers. CoPilot’s AI-powered Model Discovery Tool provides car comparisons and model recommendations, serving as an intelligent agent to make AI actionable for car shoppers. The tool applies CoPilot’s proprietary analytics to the company’s comprehensive listings database, in order to save time, money, and frustration for car shoppers. The user-friendly chat interface delivers AI-powered analysis to recommend and rank the best cars that meet each shopper’s specific needs within their chosen geographic area. Additionally, CoPilot’s ChatGPT plugin is the first to rank and return real-time listings within ChatGPT’s chat interface. 

CoPilot’s pricing tool, Price Pulse, makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, helping them to know what and when to buy, sell or trade-in, using the same data only dealers used to have.

View the press release on this month’s Index report findings here.

Media Contact:

Kerry Close

kclose@groupgordon.com

732-609-2644