CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: OCTOBER 2023 DATA

CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past three years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.

As of November 1, 2023, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found:

• Used cars have an average listing price of $31,030, down just $100 from last month. However, this is still $331 higher than their average price at the start of the year.

• The Price Premium for used cars is $6,573 (or 27%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $356 (or 6%) increase in Premium from the previous month, when used cars were priced $6,217 (or 25%) above projected normal levels.
  • November also marks the first month since June that the Price Premium for used cars has increased.

• Each vehicle age bracket saw declines in price month, with nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) seeing the most substantial drops. 

  • All vehicle age brackets have seen their Price Premium fall for at least six consecutive months, as used cars slowly and steadily become more affordable in relative terms.

• Used SUVs and pickup trucks remain the two segments closest to returning to normal levels in percentage terms, now priced 16% and 20%, respectively, above projected normal.

• Used Tesla prices remain below projected normal levels for the fourth consecutive month, currently priced $1,007 (or 2%) below normal.

  • However, used EVs overall increased in price for the second consecutive month, up by $129 (or 0.3%) from September.

• On a percentage basis, luxury brands are the closest to returning to normal levels, currently priced 21% above projected normal levels, with their Price Premium decreasing by 7% this month.

  • Domestic vehicles were the only brand to see their Price Premiums increase in the month of October, up by $552 (or 9%) from September.

PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE

• In October, nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) were listed at an average price of $38,505, falling by $394 (or 1%) since September.

  • Since peaking for the year in April, they have fallen by $2,817 (or 7%) – but they remain priced only $1,775 (4%) below their January levels, as they continue to recover from this springs run-up in prices.

  • The Premium for this age bracket was $7,763 (or 25%) above projected normal levels – a decrease of $354 (or 4%) from the previous month.

  • October also marks the seventh consecutive month in which the Premium for nearly-new cars has declined.

• In October, preowned (4-7 year old cars) had an average listing price of $26,699, falling by $417 (or 2%) since September.

  • Since peaking for the year in March at an average price of $28,975, preowned prices have fallen by a total of $2,276 (or 8%).
  • In October, the Price Premium for pre-owned cars was $5,563 (or 26%) above projected normal levels.
  • This represents a $412 (or 7%) decrease in Premium since September, when this age bracket was priced $5,975 (or 28%) above projected normal levels.
  • The Price Premium for preowned vehicles has fallen for the past six consecutive months, by a total of $1,628 (or 23%).

• In October, older (8-13 year old) used cars had an average listing price of $16,774, a $154 (or 1%) decrease from August.

  • Since their peak at the start of the year (at an average listing price of $18,141), older used car prices have fallen by a cumulative $1,367 (or 8%).
  • The Price Premium for older used cars in October was $4,000 (or 31%) above projected normal levels, down by $228 (or 5%) since September, and an acceleration from the previous month-over-month decline of $107 (2%).
  • The Price Premium for older vehicles has fallen for the past six consecutive months, down by a total of $728 (or 15%) since March.

PRICE PREMIUM BY SEGMENT

• SUVs: In October 2023, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $41,486, falling by $330 (or 1%) since September.

  • This marks the fifth consecutive month of price decreases for used SUVs, and prices have fallen by a cumulative $1,900 (or 4%) in that time. 
  • However, prices have only recovered about half of the gains they saw in the earlier part of the year, during which they jumped by $3,278 (or 8%) between January and May.

  • In October, Price Premium for used SUVs fell to $5,574 (or 16%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $215 (or 4%) decline in Premium since September, when used SUVs were priced $5,789 (or 16%) above projected normal levels.

  • Used SUVs remain the segment closest to returning to normal levels. Since used SUV prices peaked for the year in April, their Premium has fallen by a total of $1,756 (or 24%).

• Pickup Trucks: In October 2023, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $39,401, down by $253 (or 0.6%) since September.

  • This marks the second month in which used pickup truck prices remained below the levels at which they started at the beginning of the year.

  • In January 2023, they were listed at $39,818, increased to $41,404 in May, and have fallen in price steadily since.

  • In October, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $6,536 (or 20%) above projected normal levels – a $156 (or 3%) decrease since September.

  • After SUVs, pickup trucks remain the used segment second-closest to returning to normal levels, on a percentage basis. 

  • Their Premium has fallen by $1,997 (or 23%) since reaching their peak for the year in May.

• Minivans: In October 2023, minivans were listed at an average price of $24,611, representing a $124 (or 0.5%) decrease from the previous month.

  • Since the beginning of the year, used minivan prices have increased by $500 (or 2%).

  • The Price Premium for used minivans is now $6,213 (or 34%) above projected normal levels.

  • This Premium has increased by $98 (or 2%) since its January levels of $6,115 (or 34%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE

• In October 2023, used Teslas had an average listing price of $40,779, down by $944 (or 2%) since September.

  • Since Tesla first announced price cuts in late December 2022, average prices of its used models have fallen by a total of $12,522 (or 24%). In the past year, they have fallen by $18,280 (or 31%). 

  • Used Teslas are the only brand currently priced below normal levels, listed $1,007 (or 2%) below projected normal.

  • This represents a decrease from September’s Premium of $586 below normal levels, and marks the fourth consecutive month in which Premiums have been below normal levels.

  • Over the past year, the Premium for used Teslas has also fallen by $13,587.

• In October, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $42,899, up by $129 (or 0.3%) from the previous month.

  • This represents the second consecutive monthly price increase, with used EV sales increasing by 24%, and market days supply falling by 23%, since July.

  • Since gas prices peaked at record highs in the summer of 2022, EV prices have fallen significantly, down by $13,563 (or 24%) year-over-year.

  • At 88 market days supply, new EV inventory remains significantly elevated above the levels for gas-powered vehicles (at 59 market days supply), as consumer interest in EV stagnates despite price drops and government incentives and tax rebates. 

  • In the past month, new EV prices – now at an average of $65,314 – have decreased by $449.

  • New EV prices peaked in March 2023, at $68,752, and have fallen by $3,438 (or 5%) since.

• In October, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $42,633, marking a decrease of $103 (or 0.2%) since September.

  • Since October 2022, hybrids have fallen in price by a total of $1,656 (or 4%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND

Domestic Brands:

• In October, high-volume domestic brands had an average Price Premium of $6,952 (or 28%), above projected normal levels.

  • The Premium for domestic brands increased in October, up by $552 (or 9%) since the previous month.

• In October, used Fords had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $7,514 (or 31%) above projected normal levels.

• They were followed by used GMCs and used Chevrolets, which had Price Premiums of $7,512 (or 24%) and $7,298 (or 31%), respectively, above projected normal levels.

Foreign Brands:

• In October, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $5,729 (or 31%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $240 (or 4%) decrease in Premium since the previous month. 
  • In October, among foreign brands, used Volkswagens had the highest Price Premium, listed at $7,144 (or 44%)  above projected normal levels.
  • They were followed by used Toyotas and used Kias, whose Premiums this month were $6,488 (or 29%) and $5,744 (or 35%), respectively.

Luxury Brands:

• In October, the Price Premium for luxury used car brands was $6,766 (or 21%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $512 (or 7%) decrease in Premium from September.
  • Used Porsche vehicles had the highest Price Premium among luxury brands, priced $13,490 (or 21%) above projected normal levels. 
  • They were followed by used Cadillacs and used BMWs, which had Price Premiums of $8,698 (or 30%) and $7,403 (or 24%), respectively.

METHODOLOGY

CoPilot is the leading AI-assisted car shopping app that provides consumers with an expert partner for high-consideration purchases, starting with car buying and ownership. The platform combines massive real-time data with a winning combination of human expertise and AI-powered search to introduce transparency to the shopping, purchasing and ownership journey. The mobile application takes the time, frustration, and guesswork out of the process, empowering people to easily navigate the risks of shopping for high-value items, and to buy with confidence at the right price and the right time.

Its intelligent agent chatbot, AI Sam, guides consumers through the process of finding and selecting their ideal vehicle, based on their personal preferences – including budget, vehicle type, color, engine, trim, and more – as well as CoPilot’s proprietary insights and analysis about these vehicles. It provides curated and ranked recommendations for the perfect vehicle to meet their needs, as well as real-time information on its price and availability, based on their location. Consumers can also ask the AI Sam chatbot questions about specific cars and the car buying process, allowing them to access all the information they need in one place.

CoPilot’s pricing tool, Price Pulse, makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, helping them to know what and when to buy, sell or trade-in, using the same data only dealers used to have.

View the press release on this month’s Index report findings here.

Media Contact:

Kerry Close

kclose@groupgordon.com

732-609-2644