CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: NOVEMBER 2023 DATA

CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past three years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.

As of December 1, 2023, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found:

• Used cars have an average listing price of $31,030, down just $233 (or less than 1%) from last month. 

  • Year-over-year, since December 2022, used car prices have fallen by just $745 (or 2%).
  • While used car prices had finally started to fall in late 2022, they abruptly reversed course in early 2023 amid surprisingly strong consumer demand for more expensive vehicles like SUVs and pickup trucks.
  • Prices finally started to fall once more in mid-2023, as they again faced lagging sales and growing dealer inventory, and they have only accelerated in the later months of the year.

• The Price Premium for used cars is $6,107 (or 25%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $442 (or 7%) decrease in Premium from November, when used cars were priced $6,549 (or 27%) above projected normal levels.
  • Year-over-year, the overall Price Premium for used cars has fallen by 12% (or $846).

• Preowned (4-7 year old) cars saw the most substantial declines among vehicle age brackets, down by $701 (or 3%).

  • Their Price Premium fell more substantially this year, down by $1,149 (or 17%).

• Used SUVs and pickup trucks remain the two segments closest to returning to normal levels, priced at $5,147 (or 14%) and $6,059 (or 18%) above normal levels, respectively.

  • Still, used pickup trucks saw the largest year-over-year decrease in price, down by $1,523 (or 4%). Used SUVs, however, fell by just $429 (or 1%).
  • Used minivans were the only segment to increase in price this year, up by $666 (or 3%) to an average price of $24,189. 

• Used electric vehicles and Teslas have seen the most dramatic price declines overall this year.

  • In 2023, used EVs fell in price by $11,840 (or 22%) as consumer demand for less popular EV makes faltered in the face of challenges like charging and infrastructure issues.Used Teslas have fallen in price $17,259 (or 31%), and their price declines roughly coincide with when Tesla first announced price cuts to its new models.
  • Used Teslas are the only brand currently priced below normal levels, listed $1,727 (or 4%) below projected normal.
  • After months of declines, used hybrid vehicles have recently started to increase in price, up by $761 (or 1%) since last month.

PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE

• In November, nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) were listed at an average price of $38,051, falling by $463 (or 1%) since the previous month.

  • The Premium for this age bracket was $7,504 (or 25%) above projected normal levels – a decrease of $263 (or 3%) since October, and marking the eighth consecutive month of Premium declines.
  • While year-over-year, the price for nearly-new vehicles fell by $743 (or 2%), its Premium has fallen more significantly in that time frame, by $1,574 (or 17%).

• In November, preowned (4-7 year old cars) had an average listing price of $26,264, falling by $417 (or 2%) since October.

  • In the last year, preowned vehicle prices have fallen by a total of $701 (or 3%).
  • In November, the Price Premium for pre-owned cars was $5,342 (or 26%) above projected normal levels, falling for the eighth consecutive month.
  • In the past year, the Premium for preowned cars fell by a cumulative $1,149 (or 17%), from $6,491 (or 32%) above projected normal at this time last year.

• In November, older (8-13 year old) used cars had an average listing price of $16,530, a $261 (or 2%) decrease from the previous month.

  • Year-over-year, the price for older cars has declined by only $112 (or less than 1%).
  • The Price Premium for older used cars in November was $3,838 (or 30%) above projected normal levels, down by $176 (or 5%) since October.
  • In the past year, the Price Premium for older used cars has fallen by $543 (or 12%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY SEGMENT

• SUVs: In November, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $41,006, falling by $514 (or 1%) since October.

  • This marks the sixth consecutive month of price decreases for used SUVs, and prices have fallen by a cumulative $2,478 (or 6%) in that time. 

  • Driven by strong demand from savings-rich consumers at the upper end of the market, used SUVs increased in price by about $3,200 from February to May 2023. While the market has since erased many of their gains from the spring, they have yet to fully recover – and over the past year, used SUV prices have fallen by just $429 (or 1%).

  • In November, the Price Premium for used SUVs fell to $5,147 (or 14%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $372 (or 7%) decline in Premium since October, when used SUVs were priced $5,519 (or 15%) above projected normal levels.

  • In the last year, the Premium for used SUVs has decreased by $945 (or 16%). They remain the segment closest to returning to normal levels.

• Pickup Trucks: In November, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $38,968, up by $50 (or 0.2%) since October.

  • Year-over-year, used pickup trucks have fallen by a total of $1,523 (or 4%).

  • In November, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $6,059 (or 18%) above projected normal levels – a $442 (or 7%) decrease since October.

  • Year-over-year, the Premium for used pickup trucks has decreased by $1,418 (or 19%).

  • After SUVs, pickup trucks remain the used segment second-closest to returning to normal levels, on a percentage basis.

• Minivans: In November, minivans were listed at an average price of $24,189, representing a $373 (or 2%) decrease from the previous month.

  • Since the beginning of the year, used minivan prices have increased by $666 (or 3%).

  • The Price Premium for used minivans is now $5,697 (or 31%) above projected normal levels.

  • In the past year, the Premium for used minivans has decreased by $654 (or 10%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE

• In November, used Teslas had an average listing price of $39,274, down by $1,385 (or 3%) since October.

  • In the past year, used Tesla prices have fallen by $17,259 (or 31%) – roughly coinciding with when Tesla first announced price cuts to its new models.

  • Used Teslas are the only brand currently priced below normal levels, listed $1,727 (or 4%) below projected normal.

  • This represents a decrease from October’s Premium of $1,019 (or 2%) below normal levels, and marks the fifth consecutive month in which Premiums have been below normal levels.

  • Over the past year, the Premium for used Teslas has also fallen by a total of $12,837.

• In November, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $41,787, down by $1,044 (or 2%) from the previous month.

  • This represents the first month of price decreases since September with used EV sales decreasing by 1%, and market days supply increasing by 7% since then.

  • Year-over-year, used EV prices have fallen by $11,840 (or 22%).

  • New EV prices now average $65,226, and have fallen by $837 (or 1%) since last year.

  • As consumer interest in non-Tesla EVs continues to wane, market days supply has risen to a staggering 95 days supply, up from 50 days last year.

  • This is compared to the current inventory of 62 market days supply for gas-powered vehicles.

• In November, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $58,133, marking an increase of $761 (or 1%) since October.

  • Since last year, hybrids have fallen in price by a total of $1,701 (or 3%).

PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND

Domestic Brands:

• In November, high-volume domestic brands had an average Price Premium of $6,502 (or 26%), above projected normal levels.

  • The Premium for domestic brands decreased in November, down by $414 (or 6%) since the previous month.
  • Year-over-year, the Premium for domestic brands decreased by $740 (or 10%).

• In November, used GMCs had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $7,283 (or 23%) above projected normal levels.

• They were followed by used Chevrolets and used Fords, which had Price Premiums of $7,146 (or 30%) and $7,005 (or 29%), respectively, above projected normal levels.

Foreign Brands:

• In November, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $5,279 (or 28%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $427 (or 7%) decrease in Premium since the previous month. 
  • Since this time last year, the Premium for foreign brands has fallen by $1,040 (or (16%).
  • In November, among foreign brands, used Volkswagens had the highest Price Premium, listed at $6,930 (or 43%) above projected normal levels.
  • They were followed by used Toyotas and used Kias, whose Premiums this month were $6,001 (or 27%) and $5,574 (or 34%), respectively.

Luxury Brands:

• In November, the Price Premium for luxury used car brands was $6,601 (or 20%) above projected normal levels.

  • This represents a $131 (or 2%) decrease in Premium from October.
  • In the past year, the Premium for luxury used car brands has decreased by $1,417 (or 18%). 
  • Used Porsche vehicles had the highest Price Premium among luxury brands, priced $13,539 (or 21%) above projected normal levels. 
  • They were followed by used Cadillacs and used Genesis’, which had Price Premiums of $8,114 (or 27%) and $7,722 (or 23%), respectively.

METHODOLOGY

CoPilot is the leading AI-assisted car shopping app that provides consumers with an expert partner for high-consideration purchases, starting with car buying and ownership. The platform combines massive real-time data with a winning combination of human expertise and AI-powered search to introduce transparency to the shopping, purchasing and ownership journey. The mobile application takes the time, frustration, and guesswork out of the process, empowering people to easily navigate the risks of shopping for high-value items, and to buy with confidence at the right price and the right time.

Its intelligent agent chatbot, AI Sam, guides consumers through the process of finding and selecting their ideal vehicle, based on their personal preferences – including budget, vehicle type, color, engine, trim, and more – as well as CoPilot’s proprietary insights and analysis about these vehicles. It provides curated and ranked recommendations for the perfect vehicle to meet their needs, as well as real-time information on its price and availability, based on their location. Consumers can also ask the AI Sam chatbot questions about specific cars and the car buying process, allowing them to access all the information they need in one place.

CoPilot’s pricing tool, Price Pulse, makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, helping them to know what and when to buy, sell or trade-in, using the same data only dealers used to have.

View the press release on this month’s Index report findings here.

Media Contact:

Kerry Close

kclose@groupgordon.com

732-609-2644